Finnish Ministry Secures €296,200 Contract for Energy and Greenhouse Gas Baseline Scenario Update

A contract for the update of Finland's energy balances and greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenario worth €296,200 has been awarded by the Finnish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment (TEM). The contract, won by the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), demonstrates how the Finnish government is using advanced energy system modelling to assess progress toward national and international climate and energy targets.

Introduction

Every nation must understand its energy trajectory and greenhouse gas emissions to plan effective climate policy. Finland has committed to ambitious climate and energy targets, including carbon neutrality by 2035. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment has taken a significant step to support evidence-based policy-making by awarding a contract for the update of Finland's energy balances and greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenario.

While not a headline-grabbing infrastructure deal, this contract is fundamental to ensuring that Finland's climate and energy policy is grounded in rigorous, up-to-date analysis. It reveals a great deal about how the Finnish government uses integrated energy system modelling to inform policy decisions.

Why This Contract Matters

Finland has set some of the most ambitious climate targets in the world, including carbon neutrality by 2035, ahead of the EU's 2050 target. Achieving these targets requires a clear understanding of the current policy trajectory and the additional measures needed.

The baseline scenario (perusskenaario) provides estimates of Finland's greenhouse gas emissions and energy balance development under current energy and climate policy measures, extending to 2060. This analysis assesses whether Finland is on track to meet national and international climate and energy targets. The results will be used as a foundation for planning energy and climate policy for the next government term and as background material for the government programme.

Contract Timeline

• Previous notice referenced: b9d60720-18e3-4583-98f8-a1a3956917ab-01
• Contract award notice published: 27 July 2026 (OJ S 142/2026)
• Date winner chosen: 5 June 2026
• Contract concluded: 30 June 2026
• Coverage start date: 15 June 2026
• Coverage end date: 30 June 2027

Contract Overview

The Finnish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment conducted an open procedure for the update of Finland's energy balances and greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenario. The project uses integrated energy system modelling to assess Finland's progress toward national and international climate and energy targets out to 2060.

The total contract value awarded is €296,200. The contract duration is approximately 12 months (June 2026 – June 2027). The procurement received two bids, with the winning bidder being the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). The award criteria were weighted: work plan and modelling tools (40%), team competence and experience (50%), and price (10%).

Key Contract Details

Detail	Information
Contracting Authority	Työ- ja elinkeinoministeriö (Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, Finland)
Winning Bidder	Teknologian Tutkimuskeskus VTT Oy (Technical Research Centre of Finland)
Contract Subject	Research and development services and related consultancy services (CPV 73000000)
Procedure Type	Open procedure
Legal Basis	Directive 2014/24/EU
Estimated Value (ex-VAT)	€300,000.00
Value of Contract Awarded	€296,200.00
Contract Duration	15 June 2026 – 30 June 2027
Award Criteria	Work Plan & Tools (40%), Team Competence & Experience (50%), Price (10%)
Bids Received	2
EU Funding	None disclosed
Covered by GPA	No
Review Organisation	Markkinaoikeus (Market Court)

Project Scope

The project involves comprehensive energy system modelling with the following scope:

• Baseline Scenario: Development of a baseline scenario extending to 2060, modelling Finland's greenhouse gas emissions and energy balance under current energy and climate policy measures.
• Scenario Variants: Modelling of three scenario variants by varying key uncertainties such as energy prices, carbon prices, geopolitical factors, and industrial production volumes.
• Policy Measures: Inclusion of current policy measures (adopted and implemented) with a cut-off date of approximately 30 June 2026.
• Impact Assessment: Assessment of up to 5 policy measures' impact on greenhouse gas emissions and energy balance.
• Time Horizon: Analysis extending to 2060, with results reported at 5-year intervals, with primary focus on the medium term (2020s and 2030s).
• Reporting: Production of a Finnish-language report, a PowerPoint presentation, and Excel data files with numerical results.

The modelling will use an integrated energy system model covering all energy sectors and Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas emissions, such as the TIMES model. The project requires coordination with land-use sector and agriculture scenario modelling being conducted in 2026.

About the Contracting Authority

Työ- ja elinkeinoministeriö is the Finnish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment (TEM), a central government authority responsible for economic affairs, employment, and energy policy. The Ministry develops and implements Finland's energy and climate policy, including the planning of energy and climate strategies and the preparation of medium-term climate plans (KAISU). The Ministry is based in Helsinki.

About the Winning Company

Teknologian Tutkimuskeskus VTT Oy (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland) is a large Finnish research organisation, one of Europe's leading research and technology organisations. VTT provides research and innovation services to both the public and private sectors, with deep expertise in energy systems modelling, climate policy analysis, and sustainable development. VTT has extensive experience with TIMES modelling and similar integrated energy system models, making it well-positioned to deliver this comprehensive analysis.

Procurement Analysis

Procedure: An open procedure was used, following Finnish procurement regulations. Two tenders were received, both submitted electronically.

Competition: Two bids were received, indicating a competitive but specialised market for advanced energy system modelling. Both bids were from Finnish research organisations.

Award Criteria:

• Work Plan and Modelling Tools (40%): Quality of the work plan and the modelling tools used. Bidders must use an integrated energy system model (e.g., TIMES) covering Finland, the Nordic countries, and other EU countries at the required level of detail.
• Team Competence and Experience (50%): Extensive competence and experience in energy economics and systems, sectoral energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and removals (including carbon capture and utilisation).
• Price (10%): Total price of the work, with bids exceeding €300,000 (VAT 0%) being rejected.

Quality Emphasis: The 90% combined weighting for quality criteria (work plan/tools and team competence) reflects the critical importance of technical expertise and methodological rigour in energy system modelling. The quality of the modelling approach and the team's expertise are essential for producing reliable, policy-relevant results.

Innovation Procurement: The procurement is classified as innovation procurement, indicating that the services are novel or significantly improved compared to other services already on the market.

GPA Status: The procurement is not covered by the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA), which explains why no international bidders participated.

Additional Procurement Facts

• Two tenders were received, both from Finnish research organisations.
• The contract value (€296,200) is slightly below the estimated value (€300,000).
• Quality criteria account for 90% of the evaluation (work plan/tools 40%, team competence 50%).
• Price accounts for only 10% of the evaluation.
• The project uses integrated energy system modelling (e.g., TIMES) covering all energy sectors.
• The baseline scenario extends to 2060 with 5-year reporting intervals.
• No EU funding was used for this procurement.
• Disputes or review requests fall to the Markkinaoikeus (Market Court).

Market & Industry Perspective

The market for energy system modelling and climate policy analysis is specialised, with a limited number of research organisations possessing the required expertise. The two bids received for this contract reflect the specialised nature of the work.

The 90% weighting for quality criteria (work plan/tools and team competence) reflects the critical importance of technical expertise and methodological rigour in energy system modelling. The results of this analysis will directly inform government policy, making the quality and reliability of the modelling essential.

The requirement for an integrated energy system model (e.g., TIMES) covering Finland, the Nordic countries, and other EU countries reflects the need for comprehensive, cross-sectoral analysis that can capture the interactions between different sectors and countries.

Economic Significance

At €296,200, this contract represents a modest but strategically important investment in policy-relevant research. The results of the analysis will inform Finland's energy and climate policy for the next government term, supporting decisions that will shape the country's transition to a low-carbon economy.

For VTT, the contract provides an opportunity to apply its energy system modelling expertise to support national climate policy, reinforcing its position as a leading research organisation in this field.

Future Procurement Opportunities

This contract covers the baseline scenario update through June 2027. Related procurement opportunities may include:

• Follow-up scenario updates and policy impact assessments
• Land-use sector and agriculture scenario modelling
• Climate strategy development and policy analysis
• Sectoral energy and emissions studies

Opportunities for Suppliers

Research and consultancy organisations active in energy and climate policy should note the high emphasis on quality (90%) over price (10%) in this contract. Suppliers must demonstrate strong technical expertise, methodological rigour, and relevant experience to compete successfully.

Key success factors include: proven experience with integrated energy system modelling (e.g., TIMES), deep expertise in energy economics and systems, strong team competence, and a high-quality work plan.

What Businesses Should Watch

• Similar energy and climate policy research opportunities from the Finnish government.
• The evolution of Finland's climate and energy policy framework.
• Opportunities for collaboration or subcontracting with VTT.
• The development of energy system modelling capabilities in the Nordic region.

FinlandTender Procurement Intelligence

This contract is a useful case study in how the Finnish government uses advanced energy system modelling to support evidence-based climate policy. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment has secured a €296,200 contract for the update of Finland's energy and GHG baseline scenario, with VTT selected through a quality-focused open procedure.

The most striking feature of this tender is the 90% weighting for quality criteria (40% work plan and modelling tools, 50% team competence and experience). This reflects the critical importance of technical expertise, methodological rigour, and reliability in policy-relevant research. The results of the baseline scenario will directly inform government decisions, making the quality of the analysis essential.

The 10% weighting for price is unusually low for a public procurement, further emphasising the priority placed on quality. This approach recognises that the value of accurate, reliable policy analysis far exceeds the cost of the research, and that the contracting authority is willing to pay a premium for quality.

The requirement for an integrated energy system model (such as TIMES) covering Finland, the Nordic countries, and other EU countries reflects the need for comprehensive, cross-sectoral, and international analysis. This ensures that the baseline scenario captures the interactions between different sectors and the impact of EU-level policies.

For suppliers, the lesson is that technical expertise, methodological rigour, and proven experience are essential for climate policy research contracts. Organisations that can demonstrate these capabilities are well-positioned to win these contracts, even if they are not the lowest-cost bidder.

Supplier Takeaways

• Quality is the dominant factor (90% weighting).
• Integrated energy system modelling (e.g., TIMES) is required.
• Team competence and experience are critical (50% weighting).
• Price is a minor factor (10% weighting).
• Bids exceeding €300,000 are rejected.
• Results directly inform government policy decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Finnish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment awarded a €296,200 contract for energy and GHG baseline scenario update to VTT.
• The project uses integrated energy system modelling to assess Finland's progress toward climate and energy targets out to 2060.
• Award criteria: Work Plan & Tools (40%), Team Competence (50%), Price (10%).
• Two bids were received, with a large Finnish research organisation winning.
• Contract duration: 15 June 2026 – 30 June 2027.
• The results will inform Finland's energy and climate policy for the next government term.

Conclusion

This is not a contract that will make national headlines, but it reflects something structurally important about how Finland uses rigorous analysis to inform climate policy. By awarding a €296,200 contract for the update of its energy and GHG baseline scenario to VTT, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment ensures that Finland's climate and energy decisions are grounded in reliable, up-to-date analysis. The contract demonstrates the importance of technical expertise, methodological rigour, and quality in policy-relevant research, and the value of investing in robust analysis to support evidence-based decision-making.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment?

It is the Finnish government ministry responsible for economic affairs, employment, and energy policy, based in Helsinki.

Q: What is a baseline scenario?

It is an estimate of future greenhouse gas emissions and energy balance development under current policy measures, used to assess whether a country is on track to meet its climate and energy targets.

Q: What is the TIMES model? TIMES is an integrated energy system model used for analysing energy system transitions, greenhouse gas emissions, and policy impacts at national and international levels.

Q: Who is the winning bidder?

The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), a large Finnish research organisation with extensive expertise in energy system modelling.

Q: Is this contract funded by the EU?

No. The notice confirms the project is not financed with EU funds, though it is governed by EU Directive 2014/24/EU.

Source: EU Official Journal, Contract Award Notice 517148-2026, OJ S 142/2026, published 27 July 2026.